Elections in Libya: what happens next?

WERONIKA WOLANIN*

July 7th. Libya held its first free elections since more than half a century. Undoubtedly, it should be regarded as a success of a free country. That event prompted me to consider the subject of Libya. I remember the images that flashed around the world from war sweeping the country over. A year ago there was no day, no further reports and series of photographs without depicting the rebels fighting and sacrificing their lives for freedom. The determination with which the insurgents opposed the authoritarian government of Muammar Qaddafi found its end at the ballot box. Now, Libya and the newly-elected government begins a new chapter in its history. The National Electoral Commission announced that elections to the Constituent Assembly were won by a coalition of liberals.

Elections were held in accordance with a mixed electoral law, proportional-majority. Formally, political parties are fighting for 80 seats in Assembly, and individual candidates are fighting for 120 seats. The elected members of the Legislative Assembly shall now appoint 60 representatives who subsequently will be responsible for drafting a new Constitution, which will define the future structure of the political system. Mahmoud Jibril’s Party, National Forces Alliance, won 39 seats out of 80. Muslim Brotherhood or Justice and Development Party won 17 votes, and the rest of the seats were taken by minor parties. Further 120 seats in the Constituent were provided for independent candidates who, at the next meeting of Parliament next month, can declare membership of a party. However, the vast majority of the elected MPs is a reflection of Libyan regional and tribal factions. Therefore, a stable government will be a challenge. After all, in my opinion the most difficult tasks will be to meet the expectations of the Libyans, the reconstruction of the country and bringing the economy back to shape.

A big challenge will be to transform the army and the police. True, throughout the conflict they were faithful to Qaddafi but without the security services able to ensure Libyans the relative safety, newly-liberated country could slip into another vortex of fighting. On the other hand, the government is afraid that the militias created during the uprising can destabilize the state, therefore it has taken initial steps to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate several brigades. Nevertheless, the transitional government has used the police to suppress tribal fighting that erupted in the cities of Kufra and Sebha. They protected polling stations and the cities so that Libyans were ensured safety and could cast their vote without any disruptions. However, the problem is that the police was granted too much power from the interim government, thus there exists the possibility of political leverage. For instance, following the Foreign Affairs, “Emboldened by the writ of state authority, brigade commanders have been free to carry out vendettas against rival towns and tribes, particularly those favored by former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi” , so it was necessary to get rid of them from the security structures. The new prime minister should make it a matter of honour to transform current armed forces as they are essential for a properly functioning state. It should never happen that one sector brings together the strength and capabilities that jointly constitute a peril to the democratically elected government.

Moreover Jibril must consider what to do with the Supreme Security Committee (under the Ministry of Internal Affairs) and the Libyan Shield Forces (under the Ministry of Defence). They were brought to life during the transitional government and were designed to ensure security when it was not possible to fully rely on the military. Most members of the first body come from the insurgents and it is now seen as a problem for the prime minister and his government. The point is that the Supreme Security Committee and its soldiers are loyal to their local membership and do not identify with the government – they supposedly will support it as long as the government plays in accordance with their objectives. It is not known whether to include militants in the legal institutions of the new, free country or is it a better solution to dismantle them. The Libyan Shield Forces were created by the brigade commanders and they work alongside the national army. Shield Forces aim at suppressing tribal fighting in the areas of Kufra, Sabha and Zintan. However, these soldiers often do not fulfill their tasks, mostly because they are involved in the tribal clashes themselves.

One should also mention another threat that is the radical Islamists. They conducted numerous terrorist attacks prior to the elections. Their targets were inter alia headquarters of the International Red Cross, co-educational schools or beauty salons. Of course, they also aim followers of other religions and places of worship, which, according to the extremists, strike the Islam itself. Hence there is a common and constantly growing concern that the Islamists will strengthen the structure of Al-Qaeda. Somewhat reassuring message brought the election results, since a wide range of observers feared that radical Muslims will gain considerable power in the Constituent. Meanwhile, they can count only on a small level of political representation. However, everyone is aware that this is not the end and nobody knows in which direction Libya in fact will go.

The last issue that I would like to raise is the crude oil production. Before war it was the main branch of Libyan economy and a serious source of income. During the fighting, mining almost dropped to zero. After the overthrow of Qaddafi Libya began to operate oil again and mining slowly returned to its prewar levels. Serious decline occurred before the election when in eastern Libya three main export terminals were shut down. This was a result of the protests which were carried out by supporters of the extension of autonomy for the region of Cyrenaica. Unfortunately, petrochemical infrastructure elements are used in attempts to force some benefits from the government. It causes an interruption in the functioning of ports and refineries, which can last up to several days.

Moreover, it leads to the high level of work unsafety of the contract staff who are trying to restore the functioning of the oil installations in order to set the oil industry back on track. To ensure that no one is hurt, many of the workers have been evacuated from Libya. It is sad that oil is being treated as a bargaining chip in various competitions, and the truth is that without a proper and well functioning oil industry, the country is not able to bear with future challenges. Without it the authorities will not have enough money to cover the costs of rebuilding the country, or for basic expenditures. Such situation will prevent the state from modernization, its economy will not grow and Libya will slowly fall into disrepair: tribal and ethnic conflicts will be exacerbated, the social situation will be unmanageable and again disputes and fights will erupt. The effects may be devastating.

In summary, the elections in Libya have been an undoubted success, but now the Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril has to face many challenges. Among the enormity of the tasks which the government must do, it is necessary to select the essential ones to ensure the stability in the ravaged country. The work will be arduous and difficult to manage. Reforms and law enforcement will have to step forward. Libyans need to feel that something in the country is changing for the better, that their voice is being finally heard and listened to. If Tripoli will not commit spectacular mistakes, an operation on a living organism that is Libya can succeed.

To find out more about Libya’s election I recommend you to visit BBC website or check Foreign Policy website out;  you can find there lots of interesting information.

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*Weronika Wolanin studentka III roku Dyplomacji Europejskiej na Uniwersytecie Wrocławskim. Stypendystka programu LPP-Erasmus na Uniwersytecie w Oslo, gdzie była także członkinią Model of United Nations Norway; członkini koła naukowego Dyplomacja Europejska. Praktykantka w Centrum Inicjatyw Międzynarodowych i stażystka w Instytucie Wiedzy i Innowacji. Obszar zainteresowań: polityka europejska, Bliski Wchód, konflikty zbrojne, prawo dyplomatyczne, bezpieczeństwo energetyczne.